三月末交给了毕业论文。申请PhD的事已尘埃落定，生活里没了惶恐，也没了passion。 GaTch, Maryland的offer虽都曾到手，UT Austin也只是一步之遥。临到头，自己对推荐人的一个轻易承诺把春秋两季从今后五年的生活里硬生生抹去，留下明尼苏达的漫漫冬日。

 好歹John老爷爷一句 ”skies = Minneapolis ”还给人些安慰。也许去Minn也不是坏事，撇开冷，明大毕竟还是不错的。如果选择了GaTech，UMD或UT Austin中任何一所，谁知道我又会因此错过了些什么。

积郁时打开世界地图，顷刻坦荡。从Minn划了个箭头到布伊诺斯诶里斯，用手比划比划，貌似比5年的PhD之路更长，会有人同行么？心之所向。

The very sweet and dear video from "Prendimi l'anima" (Italy, 2002):

       

We can actually trace the tradition of the song to a Russian or Polish folk in a Yiddish language, which is named "tumbalalaika"(a kind of Russian music instrument).

 

Exxon's Production Falls as Profits Soar

ExxonMobil's (XOM) third-quarter earnings demonstrate the mixed universe occupied by Big Oil as a whole today—the company reported record profits but its lowest production volume in almost a decade. The Irving (Tex.)-based corporation says it earned $14.8 billion in the third quarter, an increase of 58% from the same period last year.

............

In an unusual statement in the earnings report, Exxon Chairman Rex Tillerson sought to calm any worries about the company's strength amid the global financial meltdown and reassure investors that the company's capital spending plans remain intact. "Despite the continuing uncertainty in world financial markets, ExxonMobil has maintained a strong financial position," Tillerson said. "We plan to continue our disciplined capital investments with our full-year capital and exploration expenditures projected to be about $25 billion, consistent with previous guidance."

Revenue for the quarter was $13.7 billion, 34% higher than the same period last year. The company earned $2.59 a share excluding special items, or 20¢ higher than the $2.39 expected by analysts.

The above topic is ZZed from Busienss Week October 30,2008. In the ardent discussion, one reader's comment is quite to the point, which contends that it is natural for XOM to profit during the volatile barrel prices of oil since they can hedge their price better according to both upward and downward swings in the barrells prices..... Smart businesses alwasy prevail, and this giant has taken the best position in such a volatile time for most other companies. ...Cash is KING, and Exxon.Mobile is a cash cow. (原来英语里"**是王道"竟可以这么直译的).

Most of the time we talk about how existing asymmetric position in the market (may it be the sequence in decision or capital accumulation) will be self-enhanced. I ever wonder whether there has been any formal extrapolation regarding the role of uncertainty or information flow pattern as an amplifier of this self enhanced effect. Also,  to what extent the volatile market favors the monopoly dispite the flexibility they sacrifice for their scope of operations.

 

 

 

       么事体，涂两笔。今天又坐了一天图书馆，间或收一下邮件。上周在外文馆幺泥角落扣出一本John Sutton的Sunk Cost & Market Structure, 其中一些model specification 给我修改paper不少启示，不过迟至今日才看到，不知该哭还是该笑。当然，如果上学期看到，也不一定能看懂，虽然后悔那时在不实用的高微上花掉很多时间，但至少现在看到诸如"Hicksian composite commodity"之类的term出现在assumption里时不再一头雾水。三年，也许，收获也就这么些。羡慕那些数学本+经济硕根正苗红的家伙已然是没有用的，不是人人都能先知先觉。能搞明白几个感兴趣的问题就算是很开心了，比如，为什么高微的 demand curve 里一直有收入变量y，但industrial economics 的模型中（比如Cournot-Nash或vertical differentiation）一般都没有此变量，或者直接假设一个恒定的market size，y作变量似乎只出现在longitudinal的计量中；又比如，更深刻地理解了为啥sunk cost只在于其承诺价值，承诺只对博弈的竞争格局有影响，撇去这点sunk cost 是不会影响决策行为滴，此处的sunk cost的定义与williamson的instituional中的定义竟有如此大的差异，又微妙地联系着